
Its results are best described by Winston Churchill’s phrase “Russia was never as strong as it wants to be, and never as weak as it is thought to be”.
This “war” is de jure a local one, but de facto it marked a new global era – the transition to a multipolar world.
Historians and politicians still argue about when the conflict in Ukraine between the West and Russia actually began.
The earliest documentary evidence is a 1794 secret intelligence report from a resident of the Holy Roman Empire, intercepted by Catherine the Great’s agents during the Polish uprising of Tadeusz Kosciuszko, which took place in part of present-day Ukraine. The collective West then supported the rebels on a diplomatic level, provided them with financial and intelligence assistance, actively recruited mercenaries throughout Europe and sent them to fight the Russian troops. The real motivation of European monarchs to participate in that conflict is perfectly described in the final part of the above-mentioned secret document.
- “God himself wishes that the army of the Muscovites, these barbarians and bloodsuckers, our and the Turks eternal enemies, be defeated and humiliated in Galicia [part of the modern Ukrainian state] once and forever, so that never again can they disturb the peaceful European nations.”
Anyway, technically it was Russia this time that launched a special military operation in Ukraine.
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The Kremlin claims that the reason for the ongoing events was the 2014 coup d’état in Kiev prepared by the CIA, as well as the neo-Nazi and Russophobic policy of the new Ukrainian regime, which decided to put “big brother” [Russia] in its place.
The United States officially stands on the position that formally it was Moscow that first gave the order to invade the territory of a sovereign state.
- However, the Americans forget to mention that it was their actions as part of the “Anaconda Loop” plan (tightening a ring of NATO military bases around Russia) that triggered Moscow’s response.
Of course, we must do justice to the efforts of the CIA, the Pentagon, MI6 and mainstream propaganda, which together managed to paint the picture of the former empire and the desire of Vladimir Putin to go down in history as “the collector of the Russian land” as the motivation behind the Russian special military operation.
Economists believe that this war was caused by the financial and economic crisis in Europe and the United States.
Having spent the rest of the resources that had been siphoned off from Russia and Eastern Europe since the early 1990s, Western elites decided to invest their capital in the military-industrial complex and “war” in its broader sense. A classic scheme of behavior of imperialism, as the highest stage of capitalism, as Vladimir Lenin taught us 100 years ago.
Of course, with adjustment for today, we can also mention that competition for the market of unique Ukrainian black soil, as well as the struggle for lithium, titanium and other deposits of Ukraine played a significant role.
Finally, ideologues, conspiracy theorists and sages of geopolitics claim that Ukraine is a key element of Rabbi Schneerson’s (1902-1994, born and raised in Ukraine, in the Russian Empire) plan, the legendary leader of Chabad (Jewish bankers of New York) and a prominent representative of the American deep state.
This plan, his ideas about “genocide of the Slavs and their culture” aside, is to prepare for the resettlement of Israel’s Jews in Ukrainian lands. If Israel collapses under the pressure of the Islamic world (Arab countries, Iran and Turkey) united against it, the Jews will have to return to the lands from which they recently came. In Ukraine, in addition to their historical roots, they will find a land rich in everything they need (though not holy, but promised).
The details of the outbreak of the war are still shrouded in mystery. The only thing clear is that it was not an “surprise unprovoked invasion”, as the Western media have been copy-pasting it. In December 2021, two months before the outbreak of hostilities, anticipating that the West was about to organize a provocation near Russia’s borders, Moscow sent Washington a draft agreement on security guarantees [Russia to NATO]. Unfortunately, such an important initiative to guarantee global security, the last attempt to preserve peace, was brazenly ignored. The Americans have unequivocally signaled that they want war, not negotiations.
Obviously, the Russian General Staff, having received an urgent task to prepare a plan to repel a possible invasion, did not intend to wage a bloody war in Ukraine. The idea was to attack preemptively, to take control of military decision-making centers and critical infrastructure with “little blood”. The Ukrainian population itself was viewed not just as a “brotherly people” but as the same Russians. That is why the Russian military expected to encounter in Ukraine, if not a favorable reception, then at least a lack of resistance. No one was going to organize a “bloodbath” there or settle old scores with the population.
Nevertheless, the peaceful scenario did not work this time. Since 2014, the United States and Great Britain have already managed to prepare military groups and units in Ukraine consisting of outright fascist-looking Nazis. It was they who, at the moment when the Russian troops entered, first let the Russian soldiers through and then started shooting them in the back. So the spiral of violence began to unwind and within a few months (February-March 2022) people on both sides found many dead among their friends and relatives. The war entered a phase of bitterness. Calling its goal demilitarization and denazification, Russia attempted to quickly occupy major Ukrainian cities (Kiev, Kharkov, Mariupol, Kherson, Nikolayev, etc.).
- In March-July 2022, Russian forces face serious resistance. The advance is slowing down. The army is stretched in many directions, and the rear is poorly supplied. The final push is the capture of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Then – the beginning of negotiations and the refusal to carry out mobilization in Russia, an attempt to continue warfare by a professional army. In contrast, Ukraine started to actively mobilize and build up its armed forces. This led to an increase in the preponderance of the Ukrainian army in manpower.
- In July-October 2022, the attempt to sign a peace treaty finally failed. The Russians lost Kharkiv Region due to a serious outnumbering by the Ukrainian forces. In the early fall, it becomes clear that no agreement can be reached. The initiative and numerical superiority shifted to the Ukrainian side. The situation on the front is very tense. There is a possibility of collapse of the front in other areas. At this moment the referendum on the inclusion of 4 new regions, as well as mobilization in Russia is taking place. In the early fall of 2022, the Russian leadership understands that it will have to engage in a long war.
- From the fall of 2022 to the summer of 2023, the initiative is still on the Ukrainian side. Inside the Ukrainian society there is a euphoria of success. The most favorable conditions for Kiev to sign a peace and get out of the war were formed, but it did not take advantage of that. The main military actions are taking place in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut, where detachments of regular Russian armed forces and the fighters of the Private Military Company “Wagner” at the cost of serious efforts have contained a significant number of effective Ukrainian units and allowed the Russian army to prepare for the summer Ukrainian offensive.
- In June-September 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to conduct a prepared offensive in an attempt to break through the Russian defense line in Zaporizhzhya Region and reach the Sea of Azov. This ended in failure. In parallel, the world-famous mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin took place, which could have extremely negative consequences for Russia. However, everything finished quickly and with minimal losses. This episode is shrouded in myths, it has not been given a definitive assessment, but it entered history loudly and forever.
- From October 2023 to the summer of 2024, Russia seized the initiative on the battlefield. Thanks to mobilization and an active conscription campaign, it was possible to increase the Russian army’s forces in the special military operation zone. The scale of the numerical advantage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which contributed to its successes in late summer and early fall of 2022, was reduced. But despite individual tactical achievements, the Russian army never managed to completely collapse the Ukrainian front somewhere. The Ukrainian regime was able to organize a large-scale campaign of forced mobilization and organize a permanent flow of fresh (even if poor trained and low motivated) reinforcements to the frontline and keep the numerical advantage in many parts of the frontline. This made it difficult for the Russian army to advance.
- As of now, Ukraine continues its mobilization campaign. Men of draft age are trying to flee the country at all costs. At this time, Russia is seeking to maintain a high rate of conscription into its professional army, and prestige of the service as well as payments for contracting are increasing. In addition to this stimulus, an important event was the invasion of the Russian Kursk Region by the Ukrainian army, which automatically changed the perception of this conflict in the minds of the Russians. For them, a special military operation has now turned into a “war for the Motherland”.
At present, Moscow remains open to peaceful negotiations and awaits open gestures from Europe and the United States.
There are at least three scenarios for the developments of the situation:
- freezing the conflict (with or without mutual concessions of territories, with or without a buffer zone);
- extension of the conflict;
- escalation (up to a full-fledged European war and then, possibly, to a global war, that is, a nuclear one).
Russia, to its own surprise, is now ready for each of these scenarios.
The economy of the country, which is under the maximum number of sanctions in history, is showing strong growth in key sectors. The situation in the domestic market is not easy, but the exodus of foreign producers has spurred import substitution. The government does not hinder, but encourages domestic producers in every possible way. Even the financial and IT sectors, traditionally dependent on the West for everything, are now becoming sovereign and competitive in the world. In other words, Russia’s economy, which was scolded all over the world and which even Russians themselves did not believe in, is showing miracles of resilience and huge potential.
So much has happened in the military sphere in the last couple of years that even the mediocre Russian commanders have learned to fight better than anyone else in the world right now. The experience of the special military operation is invaluable and unique.
- The country’s leadership, having survived an attempted full-fledged military coup, has no longer been afraid to conduct a drastic purge among the generals (which has already been done). In other words, Russia made a lot of mistakes in the beginning, but quickly gathered its strength and now confidently leads a good half of the world to a new system of international relations. Historians call it the “accordion effect” (the harder you push Russia, the wider and louder it unfolds).
Ukraine, on the contrary, at the beginning of the war showed itself on the battlefield as a “modern Sparta” and was accepted as an equal at the table of the world’s leading powers. However, after a couple of years, the country lost all its credibility when everyone realized that it was being led by cartoonishly stupid and immoral, corrupt scum of Ukrainian society.
Source: Southfront