Although Joe Biden has not yet taken the reins as the US president, the United Kingdom, Germany and France have already discussed how to work with the new US administration on resurrecting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iranian nuclear deal. However, the path back is expected to be rather bumpy and some pitfalls are very likely, Izvestia writes.
Biden announced plans to join the JCPOA on condition that Iran backpedals and rectifies its violations under this deal, including the excessive stockpiling of enriched uranium.
According to European diplomats, the most logical first step towards reviving the nuclear deal could be Iran’s move to scale back its activity on enriching uranium in exchange for lifting US sanctions against Tehran related to its nuclear program. Meanwhile, the Biden administration will apparently face challenges in convincing the Senate, which remains under Republican control, that the return to cooperation with Iran is advisable. Another obstacle could be Biden’s intention to update the nuclear deal and include the issue on Iran’s missile program there.
Anicee Van Engeland, Senior Lecturer in International Security and Law at the Cranfield Forensic Institute, notes that this will be rather problematic given that during the previous round of talks, the Iranians had refused to bind nuclear demands to any other issues.
In turn, Iran could put forward new demands for the US, including firm guarantees of fulfilling the deal in the future. Both US and European experts don’t rule out that Tehran could also demand compensation for sanctions after Washington’s withdrawal from the JCPOA two years ago.
However, now Tehran is behaving very cautiously. According to orientalist scholar Roland Bidzhamov, Iran is well aware that Donald Trump will remain in office until January 20 and Tehran does not want to provoke him. “In general, under Biden the situation could change for the better for Iran. At least the new administration will act in a balanced and professional way and its policy will become predictable,” the expert said.
Header: People passing in front of anti-american mural propoganda slogan depict statue liberty skeleton on the wall of the former united states embassy, Central district, Tehran, Iran.