The situation with the spread of the coronavirus infection in Russia is quite manageable and the surge in the number of the infected is not alarming. Yet one shouldn’t forget about the precautionary measures, Deputy Director for Research of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing Alexander Gorelov told TASS.
“If we all consolidate our efforts, if each of us thinks both about themselves and the people around, displaying social responsibility, the issue will be resolved without strict quarantine measures. I repeat that one shouldn’t be alarmed by the numbers, while the situation is fairly manageable,” he said, adding that the introduction of stricter limitations at this stage due to the increase in the new cases is not needed.
According to the expert, Russia is at a phase of growth of the newly detected cases, which, according to the laws of epidemiology, on average continues for 28 days, that is, about two incubation periods.
“So, considering that the growth began not today, one can suppose that after about 20 days stabilization will begin. <…> A complex of sanitary-hygienic measures will allow us to resolve this issue and reach the highest [numbers] in the next 20 days, with a further stabilization of the epidemiological process following,” he noted.
The expert also explained that it is difficult to make exact forecasts of the highest possible number of the infections at peak. It may be influenced by such a factor as a cold snap which would affect the general body resistance.
“Currently it is possible to suppose that at peak we will have 17,000-18,000 infections. This is an expected growth, after all, the segment of the population who encountered the coronavirus is still insignificant. And then there will be a decrease. But the epidemiological process will still continue, because even in summer we never had zero cases detected,” the expert concluded.
To date, 1,312,310 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 1,024,235 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 22,722 fatalities nationwide. Earlier, the Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.