The IDF Military Intelligence Directorate presented its annual intelligence assessment to the political echelon Tuesday morning.
The presentation was delayed one week due to the killing of Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani by an American airstrike in Iraq.
The Military Intelligence Directorate believes that Iran is continuing to advance at a slow pace and is capable of reaching enough material within a year to produce one nuclear bomb. Production of a missile capable of carrying the bomb will take another two years.
On the northern front, the IDF estimates that Syria will continue to be fertile ground for cross-border fighting: Turkey will continue to conquer territories and Russia will continue its consolidation in the country.
According to the same estimates, in the coming year the Assad regime will be required to decide on the future of the Iranian presence in the country.
As for Lebanon, political instability is likely to continue as a result of economic problems and Hezbollah will continue to build up its arsenal against Israel. Lebanon, it is estimated, will also be required to decide its position on the Iranian influence and the future of the Iranian precision missile project undertaken in its territory.
On Gaza, the intelligence assessment speaks of a move toward calm, not out of the love of Israel but out of economic considerations for the benefit of Gaza citizens. The IDF pointed to a significant improvement in residents’ lives with increased electricity hours, the flow of clean water, increasing the amount of medicines in the territory, and more.
Intelligence assessments indicate a separation between negotiations for quality of life improvements for Gazans and the issue of prisoners and missing persons held by terrorists in Gaza. The report also noted that Hamas does not want war, but it is impossible to say that there is total deterrence.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Tuesday evening addressed the publication of military assessments that Iran could have enough uranium to develop a nuclear weapon within one year and a missile capable of carrying a nuclear bomb within two years.
“We know exactly what is going on in the Iranian nuclear program,” Netanyahu said in a video he posted.
“Iran thinks it will obtain nuclear weapons. I will say again – Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.”
“I also urge all Western countries to impose the United Nations automatic sanctions mechanism, snapback sanctions, now,” the prime minister added.