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Israel Hayom poll: Overwhelming support for early election, Right loses majority

The big winner from holding elections now would be the last party that joined the government and is now extending its days: The State Party led by Gantz. It is projected to garner 31 seats in the poll, compared to only 12 seats in the current Knesset.

The poll shows that Israelis would like to have the elections take place as soon as possible, but perhaps not immediately. The Maagar Mochot Institute conducted the poll among 505 respondents who comprise a representative sample of the adult population in Israel. The sampling error is +/- 4.4%.

Asked if they support elections as early as possible, 63% favored such a proposition, compared with only 37% opposed.

  • Those who were the most in favor of an early march to the polls were those who did not vote for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the previous election.

Some 80% of Yesh Atid voters (in the previous elections) said they wanted. Among voters of the State Party (led by Benny Gantz, who entered the Netanyahu government after the war broke out) 59% said they wanted an election held.

  • Some 38% of Likud voters supported early elections while only 45% opposed them. Some 25% of Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit voters supported early elections, while 51% opposed. This trend also continues among voters of the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties.

The original pre-war Coalition comprising Likud and its right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies would only get 52 seats if elections were held today, compared to the 64 they got in the previous election, making it all but impossible to swear in a government without support from the side of the divide.

  • Likud would receive 21 seats, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism 14 as a single faction, Shas 10 seats, and United Torah Judaism 7.

The big winner from holding elections now would be the last party that joined the government and is now extending its days: The State Party led by Gantz.

It is projected to garner 31 seats in the poll, compared to only 12 seats in the current Knesset. The poll is bad news for the Labor Party, which would not pass the election threshold, unlike Meretz is expected to enter the Knesset (having failed to do so in the Nov 2022 election). Labor will get a new chairperson when before the election, which could change the dynamics of the race.

Likewise, the entry of people such as former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and Naftali Bennett could change the map of mandates and the map of future blocs.

Of Likud voters in the last elections, only 48% said they would vote again for the ruling party.

  • Some 14% said they would vote for the State Party, and 16% said they would not vote. The State Party also gets voters from Yesh Atid: Some 28% of Yesh Atid voters said they would vote this time for Gantz’s party and some 26% of Yisrael Beytenu voters also said they would this time support Gantz.

Who is the most suitable?

Respondents were given five names and for each, they had to determine whether he was the most qualified to be prime minister using three different rankings.

  • From the survey it appears that the candidate with the highest score (unsuitable, suitable, very suitable) is Gantz, with 28% support, followed by Netanyahu with 21% and Bennett with 20%, then Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid (16%) and Yossi Cohen (15%).
  • Some 27% of Likud voters currently believe that the most suitable candidate for prime minister is Gantz. Some 62% of Yesh Atid voters think Gantz is the most suitable, compared to 59% who still think Lapid is the most suitable.

Even 26% of those who voted for Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism think Gantz is more suitable than Netanyahu.

Source: Israel Hayom