The average Brent oil price will drop to $35 per barrel in 2020, the international rating agency Moody’s says.
“Notwithstanding the recent increase in prices, we now assume that Brent will average $35/barrel (bbl) this year and $45/bbl in 2021, or $8/bbl below our March 2020 assumptions,” the rating agency said.
“We also expect oil prices to remain below their path pre-coronavirus, as long-lasting changes to oil-intensive travel and transport in particular lower oil demand for several years to come,” Moody’s noted.
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher liquidity pressure, the rating agency noted. At the same time, “relatively greater levels of economic diversification buffer the impact on Russia,” Moody’s noted.
Exporters of hydrocarbons will not be able in general to fully compensate the huge drop in revenues, which will lead to a long-term increase of the debt burden, the rating agency said.