Scientists from the Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia have developed mathematical models of the coronavirus spread in the world, predicting that the pandemic in most countries, including Russia, will end in July, the Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education said on Thursday.
“The mathematical model forecasts the end of the epidemic in Russia by the end of July and the number of those infected by the end of July will reach 524,000. We believe that after the restrictions are lifted in Russia new brief waves will emerge, which can increase the number of COVID-19 cases,” the ministry said.
Specialists of the university’s information computer technologies department using the methods of nonlinear dynamics and based on new statistics data built mathematical models, predicting time when the pandemic will end and the number of coronavirus cases in other countries. In particular, the coronavirus spread in Japan will be limited by two waves and in Sweden by three waves.
According to the data, the first wave in Japan started in early January, but the government introduced the restrictions only on April 7. The peak in cases was recorded on April 19 and then the number of cases started declining. Thus, the epidemic in Japan should end in the middle or the end of July and the number of COVID-19 cases will reach 17,300.
Sweden, which decided against imposing the lockdown, is showing another trend, according to the research. The scientists note that the first wave of cases began in late February and was sparked by infected tourists who had spent a sports vacation in the Alps in Italy and Switzerland and the peak was recorded on April 1. The second and third waves of the pandemic were registered in April and May, and the highest death rate per capita in Sweden was between May 12 and 19.
“These two waves were explained by the epidemic outbreaks in retirement homes when the patients were infected by the personnel [migrants from suburbs, who work part-time]. So, if there are no new epidemic waves in Sweden the end of the pandemic will be in early July with nearly 48,000 cases,” the research said.
The United States, which has the highest caseload, is expected to face six waves of the coronavirus spread. The first wave was recorded back on March 10 in Washington, D.C. and the sixth wave occurred only on May 29. The scientists note that the epidemic will peak on June 16, when another 277,900 cases will be recorded.
“The superposition of six waves engulfs all outbreaks of the epidemic in the states and cities in the US: Washington, D.C., New York, New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and etc. So, if there are no other waves, the epidemic in the US can end by the middle or the end of July and the number of cases will reach nearly 2.32 mln,” according to the research.
In late December 2019, Chinese officials notified the World Health Organization (WHO) about the outbreak of a previously unknown pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, in central China. Since then, cases of the novel coronavirus – named COVID-19 by the WHO – have been reported in every corner of the globe, including Russia.
On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. According to the latest statistics, over 7,477,900 people have been infected worldwide and more than 419,300 deaths have been reported. In addition, so far, over 3,792,000 individuals have recovered from the illness across the globe.
To date, 502,436 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 261,150 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 6,532 fatalities nationwide. Earlier, the Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.