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Op-Ed

Seize the Moment, Cease the Slide

There is strong possibility that Pakistan is about to fall into a deep and dark abyss. Who can stop it and how?

Let me start by narrating a story, a fiction of course but with a moral. The story goes like this:

During a joint naval exercise, officers from three different nations are bragging about the bravery, courage and discipline of their men. When the discussion gets heated, they decide to manifest it practically. The American admiral calls a sailor to climb up the mast and jump on the deck which he does promptly landing on he deck with his bones shattered. The Japanese asks his sailor to jump into the sea. The Japanese soldier also complies without any hesitation, never to be seen again. British admiral calls his sailor, hands him his loaded revolver and asks him to shoot himself in the head. The British soldier replies, “Are you crazy admiral, go get some sleep”. The British admiral tells his colleagues, “gentlemen this is real discipline, real courage, to be able to say NO to an unlawful command!”

When I was a young officer more than four decades ago, I learnt a good piece of advice from a brigadier. He said, “ when you put on lipstick on your collars ( meaning when you are promoted brigadier or above), you are expected to have the courage to say NO”.

The slogan, “do or die, not to ask why” is good for the field commanders up to the level of unit commanders but senior commanders must exercise their judgement and professional competence to evaluate the consequences of any order and if in their judgement, it is against the interests of the military/country, they must put their foot down.

That good brigadier probably had an overdose of the potion he was selling as he never got promoted beyond brigadier despite being professionally very competent.

  • This is neither against military discipline nor refutes the traditional concept of loyalty to the command or the institution. It is also not to encourage mutiny or revolt.

Rather it’s a safety mechanism against erroneous decision making since the militaries wield tremendous destructive powers in their hands. It exists, formally or informally in all the major armies and there are examples in the history of its application. During WW 2, British admiralty refused Churchill to send military supply convoy to East Africa through Mediterranean when it was dominated by German navy and U boats and chose to send it via a circuitous and long but safe route around the Cape of Good Hope.

  • During the Trump era, US military high command had decided not to carry out any whimsical orders by Trump regarding nuclear arsenal and assurance to that effect was indeed conveyed to the Chinese even to guard against accidental outbreak of nuclear war.
  • In our own history too, after the 71 debacle, General Yehya was forced to abdicate through the efforts of some brigadiers and generals, late Brig FB Ali being a leading character of that effort. It has never been termed as a mutiny or revolt, rather lauded as a service to the nation.

Now let’s see the senior military command’s responsibility in the context of Pakistan’s current political situation which is in an extremely critical stage to say the least.

Recent weeks have seen some bizarre acts in the parliament and judiciary which resulted in change of government overnight.

  • Resultantly, we have our 23rd PM being sworn in the day he along with his son was to be indicted in a court in money laundering case. He has about a dozen cases pending against him in the courts and is on bail in several of these cases. His other son and son in law are absconders and living in UK. His brother, three times ex-prime minister along with his samdhi, ex finance minister are also absconders and living in London in the same flats which at one stage they refused to own and later could not provide satisfactory money trail for its purchase. His brother, the ex PM was also sentenced to ten year jail term, released on bail and sent abroad abroad on bizarre medical grounds. His niece, Maryam Nawaz was also sentenced to 7 years jail term and currently is out on bail purportedly to look after her sick father who is not here. Wonder why her two brothers and one sister couldn’t do that.

Some credentials!

Political upheavals are not unusual in any country. But what is unusual about current crisis is that it has drawn very strong almost unprecedented public reaction. Huge crowds have come out to protest almost spontaneously without much preparation by the political party and without any leadership not only in all major cities and towns in Pakistan but also abroad where ever there is a sizeable population of Pakistani expats. There are three main elements of their protest.

  • First they consider the new government of PDM and its top leadership consisting of Sharifs, Zardari/Bhutto and Fazl ur Rehman as thoroughly corrupt and discredited. They have instantly dubbed the Prime Minister as Crime Minister to prove their point. They feel that this leadership has ruled for 30 to 40 years and have not delivered, so how they are going to deliver now. They refuse to accept them.
  • Secondly they believe that this government has been imposed upon them through American meddling ( call it conspiracy ) in our internal affairs. The term, Imported Government says it all.

Whether you call it a letter, cable or memo and irrespective of what is written in it, it is quite obvious that US was not happy with PTI government of Imran Khan.

Increasing cooperation with China, CPEC, getting closer to Russia, not condemning its attack on Ukraine, Islamic summit, refusal to provide bases for operations in Afghanistan etc were some of the thorny issues. Recent flurry of activities by US diplomatic corps, meeting all the PDM leaders, possible defectors from PTI and even some judges further cements the suspicion. PTI supporters now firmly believe that this was a US conspiracy for regime change in Pakistan.

  • Third and the most dangerous element of this public outburst is that people blame Pak Army for orchestrating and executing this regime change plan.

They believe that army wooed the allies away from PTI and encouraged the defectors. Opposition parties of PDM were trying since day one to get rid of IK. They tried every trick in the book; rallies, jalsas, long marches, dharnas, sit ins, but could not succeed. They even contemplated resignations but couldn’t convince all the members. They thought of no confidence move also in the past but could not muster the required numbers. Suddenly by February/March this year things started to fall in line and PDM was able to acquire the desired numbers for a vote of no confidence. It is widely believed that army did the ground work probably under US pressure/coercion. That is why the public ire is directed against the army and its chief, general Bajwa. It is unprecedented that army is being abused so openly and so severely. This is a very grave situation for no army can hope to succeed without public support.

The only institution that can remedy the situation is the Army.

That is where the top leadership of the army comes into play. Senior commanders, the three stars under Bajwa have a huge responsibility on their shoulders to convince their chief to take immediate remedial measures not only for the sake of army’s reputation but to save the country from falling into chaos and turmoil.

Army probably miscalculated the public reaction.

Whatever we have seen till now is perhaps a precursor of the things to come. So far IK has not come out in public. When he comes out to lead the crowds, things will get much more serious. And our enemies are likely to take advantage of the situation. A little blast or firing in the public rallies can turn the things irreversibly ugly. Already the enemy is active on social media.

  • The army has to act and act now before it’s too late.

The only viable solution to this impasse is immediate fair and free elections.

There would be resistance from the PDM coalition government, election commission and judiciary but if the army wants to do it, they can do it. Any delays will allow the incumbents to set the field to their advantage which will further complicate the issue rather than solving it. For this to happen, the army chief has to be convinced. There is a faint glimmer of hope in gen Bajwa avoiding the oath taking ceremony. This is the job of senior military leadership.

The retired ex service chiefs and three stars can lend their support but the main onus remains on the shoulders of serving three stars. They have to convince their chief to rectify the error failing which they have to ask/force him to leave.

They must rise to the occasion. They should seize the moment and must stop the country from sliding down the abyss.

  • Brigadier General Shahid Dawood Rajput (Retired)

Source: Brigadier General Samson Simon Sharaf – SHARAFS