Imperial College’s death estimates over the years have some things in common: flawed modeling, hair-raising predictions of disaster that missed the mark, and no lessons learned.
To some degree, the combined effect of vaccines and natural infection generates our overall level of population immunity, and this must be playing some role in terminating each variant wave every three-to-four months. Current Delta waves unfolding in different countries will reach natural peaks around three-to-four months after this variant arrived in each location.
The clear patterns in these data suggest that the coronavirus would be better understood if we began to treat it as two simultaneous pandemics: one severe but acute outbreak that ravages nursing homes and LTCs with extremely high fatalities concentrated among the elderly and infirm, and a second significantly milder wave in the general population.
The British scientist known as Professor Lockdown has undermined the draconian policy he unleashed on the world by confessing that Britain hasn’t fared any better in tackling the disease than the laid-back Scandis.
“It represents a human sacrifice on the altar of economics, and it is wholly unacceptable.”