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Two Pandemics: One Serious, One Mild

The clear patterns in these data suggest that the coronavirus would be better understood if we began to treat it as two simultaneous pandemics: one severe but acute outbreak that ravages nursing homes and LTCs with extremely high fatalities concentrated among the elderly and infirm, and a second significantly milder wave in the general population.

Is the chilling truth that the decision to impose lockdown was based on crude mathematical guesswork?

We now know that the model’s software is a 13-year-old, 15,000-line program that simulates homes, offices, schools, people and movements. According to a team at Edinburgh University which ran the model, the same inputs give different outputs, and the program gives different results if it is run on different machines, and even if it is run on the same machine using different numbers of central-processing units.