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The Weimar United States

This is from a former high level member of the CIA in a note to me:

“Bear in mind that we have about 100 million well armed citizens……… many of whom have military training. Even the US Army would be unable to stand up against this force if it is decided the government has ceased to protect its people and uphold the Constitution.”

As we have written, the leadership of the United States abdicated its duty to the nation when they shut it down over a not very significant flu. They have forced from their jobs nearly half the working population as a form of national suicide.

What we have seen in the streets is a similar situation to Weimar Germany as the German nation faced in the 1920s and 1930s when the communists were rioting in the streets. We have only seen in the streets the actual problem in America.

We have not seen the counter-revolutionary consequences. We have warned repeatedly that the 50% unemployment will cause a counter-revolutionary upheaval. It is coming.

How should we define a worse case scenario? The total unemployed today is said to be just in the last six weeks 36.5 million Americans out of 155.7 million who were employed or a 23% just two percent below the 1933 depression peak. But that is not the true figure for in 1933 the frustrated workers unemployed for a year from 1929 were included which today is not counting another 22% before the six weeks began, or 45%. You will note that the chart below agrees with our figures that before the coronavirus siege the real unemployment was 22% and this rose by the end of April to 39.6% but does not include May as my figures. It is important to note that in Germany in 1933 a 50% unemployment level was sufficient for the democratic overthrow of the Weimar Republic. Our oligarchs on Wall Street should start feeling their necks as they may not escape as they did in 2008. It must be remembered that the National Socialist Party on May 20, 1928 polled 2.6% of the vote, on September 14, 1930 14%, on July 31, 1932 37.4% becoming the largest political party in Germany. It was a movement that came from nowhere thrust up by massive unemployment.

CORONAVIRUS DEATHS TO OVERALL DEATHS IN THE U.S.

An analysis of federal data conducted by a team headed by the Yale School of Public Health found that the U.S. recorded 15,400 excess deaths between March 1 through April 4, almost twice the number attributed to the coronavirus. In that time period, 8,128 coronavirus fatalities were reported.

(What this means is that there has been an increased number of deaths in April and May over last year that may be due to coronavirus but the comments below question this premise.)

Below is a report from our Italian correspondent explaining why this is happening. In brief, it is because at least in the US the hospitals have been largely abandoned by the masses of the US population causing substantial layoffs of hospital doctors and personnel. People with heart attacks and strokes are afraid to go to the emergency rooms lest they develop coronavirus. Our correspondent below believes that this has caused a huge spike in the number of deaths. We are looking at the potential collapse of the entire hospital system of the United States if this keeps up. Also, doctors in the hospitals are falsifying the death certificates to ascribe the deaths to coronavirus so as to be able to receive larger death benefits from the Federal Government which pays more for coronavirus deaths. This means that the death rates for coronavirus may be overstated by double or triple what they actually are. This is reminiscent of George Bernard Shaw’s questioning why we should think that doctors are any less corrupt than our politicians. This is covered in detail to Mr. Shaw’s preface to his famous play.

This would also mean that the main killer as this report from Italy suggests below is not the coronavirus but the mass reaction to the coronavirus.

  1. The terror of this virus has spread all over the world creating mass fear.
  2. Since everybody is now concerned about the coronavirus, and since people are aware that this virus is very contagious, as well as doctors being afraid of it, the doctors are focusing their attention on the coronavirus and not on treating other diseases.
  3. As an example, here in Italy there have been many people dying for not receiving appropriate treatment for hearth attacks, cancer or ictus (stroke). Before coronavirus they were treated in time, but now they have been delaying the treatment or the surgical operations to give priority to coronavirus cases so many of them have died unnecessarily. Many doctors attribute the cause of death on the death certificates to coronavirus to avoid responsibility for negligence that could lead to lawsuits.
  4. So we cannot rely on the official statistics as they are flawed. In the US hospitals are reimbursed for coronavirus deaths more than ordinary ones so many have just stated on death certificates that everyone that dies at hospital is a victim of coronavirus in some hospitals and most who have other major disease are still attributed to coronavirus..
  5. Another point: in the first quarter of year of 2019 in Italy we had 20.000 more deaths than in 2020, but in the month of April we had many more deaths than in 2019. We may have to wait for longer period to have correct statistical data to see if this averages out.
  6. Also our Protezione Civile (Disaster Recovery Agency) has related many times on the television that there is a big difference between people dying for coronavirus and people dying with coronavirus. The majority of people dying had more than two other diseases (comorbidities), that were very severe, so the coronavirus has just been a smaller push towards the tomb. The coronavirus may have had the effect of slightly shortening the life of the patient and we may see death rates thereby offset in future months. We see typically in Italy every year 650,000 to 680,000 are deaths for many causes which brings the average mortality rate to about 1800 per day.
  7. March and April have been the worst months for the mortality attributed to coronavirus, but this has to be attributed to wrong diagnoses in Italy that brought to wrong treatments. At the beginning the doctors were thinking that people were dying from pneumonia. They later discovered from autopsies that the cause of death was venous tromboembolia (pulmonary embolism). So the right treatment was opposite to the treatment of pneumonia, and this brought to many more deaths than would have been with a proper treatment.
  8. What is most interesting is that the state and controlled media engendered a fear in the masses to accept a more dictatorial form of government than we have ever seen. This is a textbook experiment in social control. We will not comment on conspiracy theories such as this was a pre-planned Gatsian (Bill Gates) trial run to increase control of our society as in the book by Aldous Huxley entitled “Brave New World” but I can say this that what we have done we will live to regret as the studies below indicate.

Footnote one:

AGAIN, THE 1.5 QUADRILLION DOLLAR DERIVATIVE MARKET

What is missing in the contemporary discussion in the business and media is what Warren Buffett calls the the huge derivative market estimated at 1.5 quadrillion dollars. Even Warren Buffett did not mention them at his Annual Meeting as we believe he is trapped himself in sufficient derivative contracts to wipe out Berkshire Hathaway and no longer wants to attract attention to the issue. That is why we believe he will not spend a dime of his 135 billion dollars in his cash hoard on new investments keeping them in reserve for his humongous derivative exposures. I was sitting with a beautiful derivative trader of Goldman Sachs at dinner who handled his account who said to me despite his warnings about derivatives being financial weapons of mass destruction he was one of the largest derivative players in the world.

The Bank for International Settlements whose source for derivative contracts are the banks under their supervision show as follows against an 88 trillion dollar world GDP below. This covers about a third of those which exist:

“Notional amounts of OTC derivatives rose from $544 trillion at end-December 2018 to $559 trillion at end-December 2019. This, however, corresponds to a significant fall over the last six months, which could be at least partly attributed to seasonal factors.”

These bank exposures of 544 trillion are mostly out of the money but will go into the money in a crash on a chain reaction basis that can bring the whole system down. The US Federal Reserve just cannot handle a quadrillion dollar blow up and would be forced according to Henry Kaufman in his discussion with me to nationalize all the banks. Yet on examining Buffett’s March quarterly report for Berkshire Hathaway we see the following entry:

Retained earnings declined to 352,359 billion from 402,493 billion causing the net worth of the fund to drop about 50 billion dollars as total shareholders’ equity declined to 375,235 from 428,563. This is said to reflect losses largely on derivative contracts. And yet, we have not seen the April and May catastrophe yet which may have been reflected in the depressed nature of Warren’s appearance at his annual meeting. Warren says he needs all of his 135 billion in cash against 375 billion in total equity in the event of a worse case scenario. It is our interpretation that these may lie in his insurance companies that account for 25% of the fund. It is this derivative market that can blow the entire US and world economy to smithereens.

How should we define a worse case scenario? The total unemployed today is said to be just in the last six weeks 36.5 million Americans out of 155.7 million who were employed or a 23% just two percent below the 1933 depression peak. But that is not the true figure for in 1933 the frustrated workers unemployed for a year from 1929 were included which today is not counting another 22% before the six weeks began, or 45%. You will note that the chart below agrees with our figures that before the coronavirus siege the real unemployment was 22% and this rose by the end of April to 39.6% but does not include May as my figures. It is important to note that in Germany in 1933 a 50% unemployment level was sufficient for the democratic overthrow of the Weimar Republic. Our oligarchs on Wall Street should start feeling their necks as they may not escape as they did in 2008. It must be remembered that the National Socialist Party on May 20, 1928 polled 2.6% of the vote, on September 14, 1930 14%, on July 31, 1932 37.4% becoming the largest political party in Germany. It was a movement that came from nowhere thrust up by massive unemployment.

The $600.00 a week Federal supplemental weekly compensation for the unemployed on the rolls above their state benefits has stopped for a while the massive unrest as in the streets of Germany in 1933 when Ernst Rohm’s SA fielded 3,000,000 storm troopers. In fact, most of the unemployed are doing better with this $600.00 a week Federal supplement than they were when they were employed. It is not surprising to find Wall St. analysts suggesting that a 23% unemployment means nothing in the long run for as John Maynard Keynes said in 1929 after the crash that “I am may be a bad Prophet in speaking this way…………..There will be no serious consequences in London resulting from the Wall Street slump……..as the end of the stock market boom will bring a substantial reduction in interest rates, thus providing a boost to business……….which will give rise…..to new trade and industrial activity.” Now, the Wall Streeters say all you have to do is push the monetary button while everyone returns to work and everyone will be happy again. They have found the elixir of life in fiat money. Keynes proceeded in making massive investments putting his money where his mouth was and lost everything.

ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment for April 2020 is 35.4%, 39.6% net of BLS errors (see Flash No. 1435).

What this means below is that the demand for gold is so great that HSBC had to go to the Bank of England to cover its gold short position to maintain an “orderly market”. The pressure on the gold derivatives is growing as a sign of economic unrest to come.

Footnote 2:

THE SUICIDE OF THE WEST

It never occurred to me that the west would die by self-inflicted suicide but this is what appears to be happening by causing a depression in economic activity by shutting the western economies down over a virus which has not increased the overall death rate in Europe based on the study below. In addition a large proportion of US hospital deaths are being treated as a coronavirus as Federal aid allows a larger reimbursement for treating such a death rather than heart disease or strokes, and this is being done all over the US. If this is so, then the coronavirus death rate is much lower than presently estimated. European studies show that their death rates are relatively the same as in previous years.

In other words, we have shut down nearly the entire economy over inaccurate information. The figures below do not include May for unemployment but now exceed the great depression highest unemployment figures of 25% in 1933.

In 1933 Germany hit 50%. The main difference between these figures below at 39.6% and the US figure’s today is that frustrated workers who have not been employed for over a year are not counted as in 1933.

That means before coronavirus the figure was 22% and now it is 45% if we count the unemployment for May.

We really did not have a healthy economy before the coronavirus.

Why was there no mass unrest at 22%?

It was because as Mitt Romney said he could not win the election because half the country was on transfer payments. Trump won by saying he would bring back the jobs transferred out of the US to these unemployed.

It is interesting to note that Romney’s Bain Capital financed the transfer of factories out of the US to make money based on lower wages abroad. This can only work if the currencies are rigged or dirty floated as discussed in my exchange with Bob Rubin below when he was Secretary of the Treasury. In other words, the country as Germany with the trade surplus must rig the euro by buying dollars to push the US currency upward. Therefore, Ricardian comparative advantage can only work if Spain has wine to sell in exchange for an equal amount in pounds of British manufactured goods, but if there is no balanced trade, then the surplus country must buy the deficit country’s currency to maintain their export surplus. Here is where most of our 22% unemployment was created based on dirty floats.

The way the international financial system worked in 1933 was that if you had a trade deficit you had to pay it in gold which contracted your money supply decreasing internal demand until the trade deficit was wiped out.

At least that was how it theoretically should have worked. Under today’s monetary theory, if you have a trade deficit you will have to pay with an increase in quantity of your own currency that will depreciate it in the foreign exchange markets while the surplus country will have a lower creation of their currency. As such, the deficit country’s currency will fall in value making their products more attractive and the surplus country’s surplus will drive their currency upward making their exports more expensive. Here you would create balance through the floating self-correcting mechanism. But if the surplus country buys the deficit country’s currency they will hold it up so the surplus country’s exports are still cheaper. This is what they call a dirty float and therefore there is no self-correcting mechanism.

This is why the US has had endless deficits now totalling at the end of 2019 9.55 trillion dollars. This is largely held by foreign central banks as evidence of the currency rigging or dirty floating as they bought the dollar with their currency to foster exports to the US.

Why is there little unrest now?

The supplemental unemployment benefit from the Federal Government is $600.00 a week on top of state unemployment compensation until the end of July.

If state unemployment is $300.00 per week on a $600.00 per week salary, then the poor are receiving $900.00 a week which is more than they were making before. They are very happy.

That is why there is limited unrest now as we approach the 50% unemployment of Germany in 1933. Senator Lindsay Graham says he is going to stop this which will make our poor folk very unhappy as in Germany in 1933.

Before the coronavirus, people receiving unemployment benefits in most states got, on average, less than half their weekly salaries.

Now, as millions file claims, many are poised to receive more money than they would have typically earned in their jobs, thanks to the additional $600 a week set aside in the federal stimulus package for the unemployed. (April 23 NYT).

What is amazing about the Bill Gates statement below is that he is telling the truth that the influenza vaccine is worthless for elderly people which contradicts all the widespread medical advice that the elderly must take this vaccine because they are most vulnerable to influenza at their age. What makes anyone think if we were not able to develop a influenza vaccine that we can develop a coronavirus vaccine? Unless, of course, we develop a vaccine as worthless as the influenza vaccine one which is so widely sold.

The statistics below support Bill Gates in that the influenza vaccine is not effective in the elderly. The truth is that it is not effective for anyone.

Next is a chart of the influenza flu during the period of massive inoculation of vaccines to the general population in the US which shows that the vaccines have had no effect at all.

* Estimates from the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized.

The next issue is whether the bundled vaccines now given to children are damaging their health with mass autism. The autism levels under some studies have gone from one per ten thousand births to 1 in 32, while others as the chart below are not as severe. The CDC has testified that they have no proof that the vaccines are not causing autism but no proof that they are. Yet there is a direct correlation between the introduction of bundled vaccines and autism.

As if vaccines being worthless were not bad enough, the face masks are positively unhealthy.

Source: David Lifschultz – Lew Rockwell