After the launch of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Russian forces blocked the access to the Ukrainian vital seaports in the Black Sea.
Before the war, around 5 million tons were shipped each month through the Black Sea. One of the main goods exported from Ukraine were grain crops for Europe.
This became another pretext for accusing Russia of provoking the food crisis in the West. However, a brief analysis of the policy of the Kiev regime and the decisions announced by the United States and European countries predict a long-planned famine in Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden attempted to reassure the Americans that there is no threat of food crisis in the country as the grain can be easily taken from the war-torn Ukraine.
He claimed that there are 20 million tons of grain in Ukraine, and now the issue of its export is being resolved. In his opinion, this will help bring down world food prices.
On May 11, the European Commission will consider a strategy that would address technical and bureaucratic initiatives to speed up the shipping of vegetable oils, corn and wheat, some of Ukraine’s key exports, people familiar with the discussions said Bloomberg.
Europe intends to export crops by rail and , since the seaports are blocked by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The problem is that the export capacity of the railway is low.
Ukraine’s products also face a myriad of phytosanitary measures and quotas for land transport that complicate their ability to pass through various member states to their final destination, Bloomberg sources reported.
These are the main problems that the EU is set to resolve as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, giant columns of grain carriers are spotted in the Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti on the Danube.
Hundreds of trucks are exporting grain from the territory of Ukraine to the EU countries.
- “This reminds me of 1941, when Hitler exported grain from the USSR, took it out — and then attacked. So we export grain to Europe, so that they then take us for a naked ass, cold and hungry,” the author of the video comments.
The price the Kiev regime pays for the supply of weapons and financial support of its allies is too high.
According to the official Ukrainian data, the total amount of wheat produced in 2021/2022 MY amounted to 32,4 million tons.
Based on the analysis of exports over the last five seasons (2016-2021), Ukraine exports about 80 percent of its wheat.
About 6 million tons traditionally remain on the domestic market.
This year, about 26 million tons were designated for export.
- According to the Ukrainian statistics, since the beginning of the season, which started on July 1 2021, and as of December 15, exports of crops and grain legumes from Ukraine already reached 28.7 million tons. Wheat exports accounted for 56%. Until December 15, at least 16 million tons of wheat were exported.
During the period from December 15 2021 to February 24, 2022, exports continued in full via the usual logistics chains. After the closure of the sea ports, exports did not stop, but were reoriented to land channels.
Only railways allow to export about 1.1 million tons of grain per month. Millions of tons are transferred by trucks. According to the most conservative estimates, from December 15 to May 10, at least 6 tons of wheat were additionally exported.
The entire harvest of 2021 MY was already exported and used for the needs of the Ukrainian domestic market.
Various Western sources, including US President Biden, declare the need for the immediate export of additional 20 tons of wheat from Ukraine.
This is grain from Ukrainian strategic reserves in the amount of at least four months of wheat consumption by the domestic Ukrainian market.
In the context of the impending global food crisis provoked by the Western sanctions against Russia and disruption of supply chains, the United States and European countries are aiming to replenish their reserves, thanks to the crops taken from the Ukrainian people.
The policy of the Kiev regime reveal clear signs of famine planning in Ukraine. Amid the ongoing military operations, the sowing season was disrupted in many of Ukrainian regions. The male part of the population were called up for military service, some regions are under control of the Russian Armed Forces.
Moreover, the spring of 2022 is significantly colder than in 2021.
Not to mention the dysfunction of the agricultural sector, which was sharply reoriented to foreign consumers to the detriment of the Ukrainian market.
In December 2021, Ukrainian experts reported that “representatives of the flour and grain industries announced an unbalanced wheat trade: high-quality food grades were supplied to foreign markets, and fodder remained for Ukrainian consumers.
After the refusal of the Ministry of Agriculture to fix export limits by class in the export-regulating memorandum, the Association of Millers, the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers and Ukrhlebprom withdrew their signatures under the document. This happened for the first time in 10 years and jeopardized the functioning of one of the most effective mechanisms of mutual understanding in the grain market.”
Regardless of the developments on the frontline, the harvest in 2022-2023 MY will be much smaller.
At the same time, other branches of agriculture in Ukraine also faced crisis phenomena long before the start of military operations.
According to the Ukrainian statistics, egg production decreased by 13.5%, milk – by 5.8%, meat – by 2%, wool by 6.3%. According to the Association “Union of Poultry Farmers”, Ukraine imported eggs from Belarus in July – August 2021 for the first time since 1991.
The number of various agricultural animals also critically decreased:
• Cattle – by 6.9% (2.93 million cattle heads):
• pigs – by 4.7% (5.83 million heads):
• sheep and goats – by 5.9% (1.19 million heads).
According to experts of the Association “Pig Breeders of Ukraine”, the cattle breeding in Ukraine has already passed the point of no return in 2021 and “the restoration of the livestock is almost impossible.”
As of November 2021, the food prices in Ukraine increased by almost 15%.
In 2021, bread has increased in price by 18.9%, dairy products by 15.2%, meat products by 15.4%, sugar by 20.4%.
- It is obvious that such a policy of the Kiev regime will lead to a critical shortage of food by the autumn-winter of 2022-2023.
A similar situation took place in the USSR in the early 1930s, when the young Soviet state, weakened by the First World War and the Civil War, was forced to export large volumes of grain, including wheat, to the United States and other Western countries, including Germany. In 1930-1931, the USSR exported about 2.5 million tons per year.
In 1932-1933, the agrarian policy of the USSR, which caused a crop failure, led to famine in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The number of deaths in Ukraine amounted to 3 million 917.8 thousand people, Russia — 3 million 264.6 thousand, Kazakhstan — 1 million 258.2 thousand people, in total 8 million 731.9 thousand people throughout the USSR.
In 2023, the tragedy may be repeated in Ukraine because of Kiev’s policy. Russia will once again be declared the culprit of the Ukrainian famine.